Oh, well. A couple of comments here.
Steve, I'm about to pick on your post, not you. Hope you understand that.
CHLSteve wrote:With tens of thousands of new CHL'ers on the streets in Texas, LEO will encounter them more often. Frankly speaking, they will not be special or unique anymore.
Let's look at some numbers. As some of you have surmised, I like stats.
As of 12/31/2007, DPS claimed 288,909 active license holders and 1,639 instructors. When Charles Cotton attended a meeting with DPS a few months ago, they stated approximately 300,000 license holders. If we assume even 320,000 CHLers as of 12/31/2008, that's an increase of only 9.7% over the 2007 figures.
Now, I just pulled 320,000 out of my hat, but I've seen no reason to believe the number exceeds that. My bet is that when we see the 2008 year-end report, the number will be close, if not lower.
Plus, take into account that a change of 30,000--or even 100,000--in CHL count is pretty miniscule compared to the overall population. The Texas State Demographer's estimates of the 2007 population over the age of 21 was 16.4 million; they haven't released a 2008 estimate yet. So adding even a whopping 100K additional CHLers only means less than a 0.61% percent increase in the over-21 population at large.
If we have 320,000 CHL holders, that represents 1.95% of the Texas population age 21 or older. If we can achieve 500,000 CHLers, we'll still represent less than 3% of the over-21 population. If you include younger drivers, that's 1.8% to 2.7%. All things being equal, that means less than 2 or 3 out of 100 drivers stopped by a LEO will be CHL.
And I'd argue that we are a generally more law-abiding bunch than the population at large. Certainly the stats regarding serious crimes support this...by a huge factor. And we have about 4,000 registered members on this Forum, and very few (what, maybe fewer than 20? Fewer than 10?) have mentioned being asked for identification by a LEO with any frequency
after they received their plastic.
If we assume our odds of being pulled over on a traffic stop are one-quarter, or less, than the general population's (so one in every 200 stops), we rapidly start to become statistically insignificant.
Group hug!
CHLSteve wrote:The perception of "certified good guy" will likely go as well as it gets too diluted to mean anything.
I don't see that one, either. Unless the certification requirements for licensing change, how can there be any dilution? You either pass the background checks and meet the criteria or you don't.
Additional numbers of CHL holders don't change this. Volume does not equate relaxing standards. If anything, possibly the opposite. I think increased demand might also increase scrutiny into the operations of those counties whose record keeping has been more lax than, shall we say, most others.
I firmly believe any view of CHL plastic as some sort of "get out of jail free" Monopoly card is sorely misplaced and misinformed. I also believe any such attitude damages us as a group.
There is no "wink-and-nod" conspiracy between LEOs and CHL holders. Any inference otherwise is, I believe, naive.
We are individual citizens who have been licensed to carry a concealed handgun. That's it. That's the extent of our licensure.
