TexasCHLforum.com

Sorry I am late to this discussion. It seems like some did not read the SCOTUS decision and understand it, or what is going on. The law required that all decisions affecting voting in certain states or jurisdiction must receive clearance by the DOJ to take effect. Texas was one of the jurisdictions. This meant that the DOJ could say no to a law and claim it was discriminatory. Texas could appeal the decision by going to court and proving there was no discriminatory intent OR effect in the law. AG Abbott joined a lawsuit challenging the pre-clearance requirement, which was section 5 of the federal law. SCOTUS ruled that section 4 was unconstitutional because it was based on data that was 40 to 50 years old.

As soon as SCOTUS ruled, Abbott said that the new Texas law on voter ID would take effect. The DOJ may still challenge this law or others because the pre-clearance requirement is still legal. They will need to prove that there is still a recent history of discrimination in Texas. Note that this means that the burden of proof is on the DOJ instead of on Texas to prove no discrimination. I think this is a much harder burden to meet.

I doubt that Holder will try to fight the voter ID law, as much as he wants to. SCOTUS has already ruled that they are constitutional and I am fairly certain that our law will meet their standards. The only argument against it will be the distances to drive to get an ID for free in some counties.

But we also are adopting a new set of district lines. While based on the court drawings, the legislature did make some changes to them. I think they will also stand the test of the DOJ trying to prove discrimination, but I could be wrong. If the DOJ wins either case, or can prove other discrimination recently, they can win an order to continue to require pre-clearance for Texas. If they lose both cases, I don't see them proving the recent history to require pre-clearance, but they will keep trying until they win one.

This is, of course, all political. The lines drawn were drawn to attack democratic bases, which means they attack a disproportionate amount of minorities. The DNC has a strong interest in breaking the Texas Republican monopoly at the state level. Even if they do not get any significant state wide offices, the Dems could get better voting and break the R majority in the Congress. It will be a long hard fight on both sides.