I respectfully disagree. I think Roberts is pro-2A but he views his role as CJ to maintain stability and minimize the amount of time that the court looks political. That means he works to avoid 5-4 decisions. When he can't, as mentioned above, he will often join the winning side and write the opinion so that it is as palatable as possible. Put another way, I think he votes strategically/pragmatically in these situations not necessarily for the side he actually thinks has the better legal argument.srothstein wrote: ↑Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:39 pmI think Roberts will vote with the majority on this because he likes to be on the winning side, with no real care for the case or issues being heard. I have very little respect for him and think he acts as a weathervane of sorts. Which way is the wind blowing and he will go that way.Hoodasnacks wrote: ↑Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:26 pm In a 5-4 situation like that I think Roberts may move to a 6-3 anyway. If he is in the majority, he can determine who writes the opinion. An opinion written by him as opposed to Thomas is much different. That said, I don't think Roberts has been bad historically on 2A. He voted with the majority on Heller while Chief Justice--and he had Scalia write the opinion.
Applied to this case, if there are 5 votes to overturn the NY law (and by extension the other courts that have ruled there is no 2A right outside the house or that "may-issue" is OK), he will probably vote with them and write the opinion. Assume for a moment that Thomas wants to write an expansive "blockbuster" opinion putting the 2A on the same level as the 1A. That would mean strict scrutiny, most restrictions would fall, etc. If Roberts thinks this is too much, he could write a more narrow opinion. Yes the NY law will fall and the 2A applies outside the home but crafted with a different "tone". Instead of getting greater clarity due to established 1A standards, he'll split the difference. THOSE restrictions fail but the door is left open for others to potentially be upheld although such determinations will be made in the future. I believe that this is the most likely outcome.
SA-TX