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Skiprr wrote:The World Health Organization yesterday upgraded the situation to Phase 5. I'll let you go to http://www.who.int and peek for yourselves. You may want to visit http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ also.

I think we can afford to joke around a bit...but I don't think we can afford to be dismissive.

The fact is that H1N1 is a transgenic virus, one whose mutated DNA has allowed it to cross between species, and one that has so far seemed to be highly contagious in humans. The bird flu ain't got nothin' on this.

That this is a brand-new virus--current point of origin places it in La Gloria, Mexico, north of Oaxaca, with the earliest-known infection dating to April 2--means that nobody in the world has an immune system that can target this specific virus.

If we start out healthy, our immune systems can adapt to this new virus and our symptoms may be little different than a bad case of plain ol' flu. But this flu is highly infectious because no one has immune systems to address it.

I'm just saying, don't dismiss swine flu as only media hype.

Skiprr, you're right on target with your post. A virus that becomes transgenic can easily and rapidly mutate to a much more virulent and dangerous form. I've participated in a lot of training for dealing with these issues, and I'm watching the situation carefully. According to the best information I can find, we don't have a full blown crisis on our hands yet, but failing to make self sufficiency preparations at this point would, in my opinion, be taking an unacceptable risk for the small costs involved. If the situation does go south, it will do so in a hurry, and those without fully executed preparedness plans will likely find themselves out of both luck and time.

I personally hope the virus fizzles and goes away, and there's a reasonable chance it will. If that happens, it may still come back in the same or different form at a later time, perhaps when the cold weather returns. If it does fizzle, those of us who have prepared just won't have to fill the grocery cart as full as usual for a few weeks. It doesn't cost anything extra, so I can't see a downside to it, and the upside if things get worse presents a much prettier picture than the alternatives.

The current swine flu situation is very fluid and could go any one of several ways, including:

- It runs its course in a few locations and doesn't spread (highly optimistic)
- It spreads widely but isn't virulent enough to cause widespread deaths
- It spreads widely and does cause widespread serious illness and deaths
- It runs its course in a number of locations without causing major damage, but returns later in the year in a more virulent form which spreads widely and causes widespread damage.

There are other possibilities as well. To get an idea of how the experts look at pandemics, I suggest reading FEMA's emergency response protocols. Page 7 of this document outlines some of the issues they expect may arise, and the rest details how various types of response agencies should prepare themselves. Your plans should include provisions for the same possibilities.

A good set of individual preparedness resources can be found at the pandemic flu preparedness web site. If you read through the recommendations, you'll see that many of them are the same things you would do for any good all hazards plan for earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. In the event of a pandemic, the short version is that, in the worst case, your plan should allow you to function completely on your own for all supplies and services (food, water, shelter, medical, sanitation, security, etc.) for an extended period of time (2 weeks to possibly a month or more).

Advance preparedness is key. If you wait until everybody figures out they're in trouble for sure, you'll find your options severely limited.