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I've been avoiding commenting on this topice so far, but…

I don't believe Putin's strategy in Ukraine was to "…draw the U.S. and allies into spending tons of money and sending military resources to Ukraine." I think he assumed that the U.S. and NATO would not get so directly involved and that Russion would quickly steamroll Ukraine. He was obviously wrong.

If China, Iran, and Russia coordinated actions, either directly or by opportunistic coincidence, it would be bad, but NATO would get even more involved if Poland were were attacked. We'd see NATO fighters, bombers, and missiles flying over Russian territory. I'm pretty sure Putin does NOT want that.

As for semiconductors, I worked a couple of decades in the area of semiconductor manufacturing, most of that time involved with high-reliability components sold to military contractors. Often there were contractural requirements for domestic manufacturing, specifically for the purpose of maintaining a local supply in case of global conflict. While we produced wafers, assembled parts, and tested them in the good ol' USA, some of the package components, most commonly lead frames for ICs, were made in Japan or somewhere else in the far east. Even if we construct more wafer fabs in the continental US, there will most likely be something that's necessary for a finished product that we won't have. Whenever we pointed this out, the response was usually that they cared more about jobs for U.S. workers than true defense preparedness. My reply, which won me no appeciation, was "Are we running a defense products business or a jobs/welfare program"? In short, domestic semiconductor production is a dream. We won't have the ability to produce a meaningful quantity of components despite the efforts of our politicians because they are focused more on the jobs aspects rather than true total manufacturing capabilities.