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I have heard that criminals often return to the same locations. It seems counterintuitive to me because I'd think they're more likely to be caught either up front because of heightened awareness on the victims' part or on the back side because of more chances of evidence stacking up against them, but I'm not a criminal, so what do I know?

If I were in your shoes, I would walk your perimeter today looking at your property like a criminal would. Do you have anything accessible outside that would encourage people to enter your driveway or yard? Any entry weaknesses on doors or windows? Any thing visible from windows that would say, "rob me!" I'd then change that, especially through outside lighting and inside use of draperies if applicable.