Crime rates unknown

[Paladin]

Democrats Run The Most Crime Ridden Cities In The US - But Is The Situation Even Worse Than We're Told?

In January 2021, the FBI officially switched data collection methods from the Uniform Crime Reporting database to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). This was done right before Joe Biden entered the White House. The NIBRS system requires agencies to submit more detailed data, which has caused the transition to the new system to be slow. In 2021, only 63% of law enforcement agencies submitted NIBRS data to the FBI.

There is still no complete data released for 2020-2022, making it difficult to gauge the true increase or decrease in overall crime in the past few years.

If the establishment planned to hide or suppress a spike in crime, that was the right time to engineer a bureaucratic reset in information collection. When the FBI released its 2021 national crime data last fall, it couldn’t say if crime went up, went down, or stayed the same. The FBI concluded that all three scenarios could be possible because of the gaps in the data.

[Rafe]

Car Shopper: "I'm interested in your ad about the sale on the 2023 F-250 Super Duty XLT. Do you have some in stock?"

Dealership Salesman...er, Salespersonage: "We do! We currently have a dozen of them on the lot with different feature configurations."

Car Shopper: "The 7.3 liter V8 is standard, right?"

Dealership Salespersonage: "It is! It's the most powerful V8 in its class, rated at 430 horsepower and generating 485 lb-ft of torque."

Car Shopper: "What's the average city-driving gas mileage?"

Dealership Salespersonage: "Normal driving conditions and not pulling a load, it averages 32.45 yaddawatts-equivalent of metered carbon emissions."

Car Shopper: "Huh? But it's a gasoline engine, isn't it?"

Dealership Salespersonage: "It is! It's the most powerful gas V8 in its class!"

Car Shopper: "I just need an idea of the miles-per-gallon average."

Dealership Salespersonage: "Under typical driving conditions and not pulling a load, it averages 32.45 yaddawatts-equivalent of metered carbon emissions."

Car Shopper: "No. Miles-per-gallon. I need to know what to expect to budget gasoline use."

Dealership Salespersonage: "I'm terribly sorry. But a recent executive order from President Biden requires us to report only in yaddawatts-equivalent of metered carbon emissions. Of which the amazing F-250 Super Duty XLT averages 32.45!"

Car Shopper: "So what does that mean in terms of how many miles I'll get per gallon of gas?"

Dealership Salespersonage: "Well, it really doesn't mean anything. The measurement of yaddawatts-equivalent of metered carbon emissions doesn't have a direct correspondence to gasoline burned. We don't measure or report on miles-per-gallon anymore. But the really great news is that under President Biden's executive order the nation has seen almost a 7% reduction in yaddawatts-equivalent of metered carbon emissions generated in just the last six months! Isn't that amazing?"

[philip964]

I wonder if the change in reporting was planned with Brandon taking office or if it was just a coincidence?

Car break in's seem to be the new thing in Houston. Two car owners were shot yesterday by car break in robbers. One died the other is in critical condition.

Apparently if you see your car being broken into, your immediate reaction is to run over and say dont do that. Rather than standing at a distance and watching it all happen. Here is probably the one place you should get your phone out and video the crime. If you run over and say don't rob my car, it appears you need to have your gun already out because the car robbers will immediately shoot you.

I subscribe to a number of these Neighbor, citizen, Neighborhood, Next Door type websites. They are filled with car breakins all over the city. There was a recent article about a parking area at a city park. The police say breakins are down. However the reporter noticed that the parking lot was filled with the tell tale reflective tempered glass fragments of a car break in.

The other location for breakins seems to be parking garages with overnight cars, such as in these midrise expensive apartments or condos. Hotels would be another location for overnight cars. The crooks will target like a hundred cars in one night. Of course breaking into a car is a low priority crime in Houston. I think I read a murderer was released on $10,000 bond recently, so a car burglar might just get a ticket of some kind if they were actually caught.

My understanding in San Fransisco you dont lock you car to avoid the cost of the window replacement. I've started doing that when I park in a place where they think I wont be back for a while. My luck they would break the window and then realize it was unlocked.

[srothstein]

I wonder if the change in reporting was planned with Brandon taking office or if it was just a coincidence?

It is just coincidence. NIBRS was started in 1989 with the idea that it would eventually replace UCR. The hope was that more agencies would report NIBRS with the improved use of computers because it is easier for a computer to pull the data to report to NIBRS than it was for UCR data.

There is an expected jump in overall crime when NIBRS is reported over UCR because of the data collection method. In UCR, they were only interested in 7 major crime types and did not collect data on the minor crimes not included in those classifications. Also, only one crime was reported per incident, no matter how many were committed. NIBRS allows ten offenses per incident and collects data on 52 different crimes.

To show how that works, say that you had a robbery of a store with two employees. One gets pistol whipped until he opens the drawer, but the other is shot and killed. UCR would call that one crime, and count it as homicide. NIBRS would count it as at least three crimes, with one robbery, one aggravated assault, and one murder being reported.

As an aside, the FBI has always warned against comparing crime rates in UCR or NIBRS data except for the same one jurisdiction from year to year. No agency is mandated to report at all and in some cases they overlap. For example, to get a clear picture of the crime in Houston, you would need to get the Harris County Sheriff's data, the various constables data, the various ISD police data, the Park Police (both city and county) data, the airport police data, and the college police data among other agencies, along with the Houston Police data. Then you would need to find out which parts of the various agencies data occurred inside the city and which parts occurred outside it. But you can compare the HPD data from year to year to get a good idea of the change.

But I think overall, we can all get a good feel for what is happening just by watching the news and social media reports around us. Believe the informal reporting more than the formal stuff and you should get to the accurate conclusion that crime is climbing.