The Annoyed Man wrote:That's kind of a question without a right answer. Carry what makes you feel comfortable. Personally, I'm in the habit of carrying the magazine topped off with one in the pipe, plus one extra magazine - regardless of what I'm carrying. That means if it is my Kimber Ultra, it's a total of 15 rounds. If it's my 5" Springfield, it's a total 17 rounds. If it's my M&P 45, it's a total of 21 rounds. In the other direction, if it's my .357 snubbie, it's a total of 10 rounds.
The only exception to that is when I use my shoulder holster, in which case I carry a second spare magazine in the mag holder; but that is only to balance the load a bit and not because I feel like I need the extra rounds.
The average exchange of fire in a gun fight is 2 to 3 rounds. So even if you carry a 1911 with 7 round magazines and you don't top off the one in the gun, you likely have 6-7 times as many rounds as you'll actually need in a shooting. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know.... there is no feeling so low as being in a war zone without sufficient ammo yada yada yada. I don't live in a war zone. I live in suburban Grapevine, Texas, and I don't pretend to be a ninja warrior. I'm too old and fat for that stuff. If 10-31 rounds of handgun ammo (depending on carry configuration) isn't enough, then I should have brought a long gun, in which case I should have avoided going outside in the first place.
Averages are deceiving.
In the gunfights my agency experienced during my service years, I can't think of any gunfights that fell within those numbers. Some shootings where the BG was taken out before he got any rounds off did, but those aren't technically gunfights, even though guns were involved on both sides.
Most of the actual gunfights I remember ran between 7 and 90 rounds, the latter being a multi officer engagement with a determined member of a terrorist group during a kidnapping - an unlikely problem for a CHL holder.
Although I know it's statistically rare for folks to be struck by lightning, I've seen enough cases of it happening to stay away from open fields and trees during thunderstorms. Likewise, I don't make my readiness decisions based on shots fired averages because real gunfights are all single data points in those average numbers. The actual single incident shot counts range all over the scale.
The rare incident you're involved in is the only one that counts, not the average in lots of other events that happen to others, and there's no way to ascertain in advance what the tactical situation or ammo requirements will be. Higher numbers of available rounds prepare you to successfully manage more possible cases. I like to stack the factors I can control in my favor because there will be more than enough other factors to manage during an actual event, and some of those won't be leaning my way.
I set my minimum ammo load at a full pistol and one full spare. My usual practice is 2 full spare magazines, and I increase that count when I anticipate a heightened potential for trouble.