My new tin foil hat!

[The Annoyed Man]

I think it's time for some reflection

Make sure you get a hat with the shiny side out then.

I'm surprised you guys in Texas don't have this already figured out, between the hurricanes and floods and ice storms, etc it seems like all this would be if not usual at least a normal part of life, like checking anti freeze in your car every Halloween or something. (They still use anti-freeze in cars, don't they? I never have to since it never freezes here. The only ice we see is in the glass.)

Make up a plan, by all means, but be realistic. I have seen some guys make elaborate rucksacks with enough medical supplies to outfit a hospital, food for a month, ammo, money, batteries, radios, documents on thumb drives, water, etc, that weighs more than they do, and they propose to carry this rucksack cross country since they figure roads will be jammed or blocked, nobody will have gasoline, etc. Where are you going to go? What will you exist on when you get there, if you do? How many others have planned to do the same things? Most people aren't in good enough shape to walk from one end of town to the other, even if it is flat and the weather is good. Add hills, bad weather and carrying that enormous rucksack full of stuff, and they won't get even a few miles.



Fleeing by automobile is probably not realistic. From here in the southwest corner of the country, state and urban area, hemmed in by the border and the ocean, there are only two ways out, and several million people will be taking them. I watched the hurricane evacuations a few years ago up towards Dallas. No thanks! Might you be better off staying put, with enough food and water and resources, generators, etc. to stay warm and fed and hydrated, and defended until things sort themselves out?

That is why our effort has two phases.

Phase 1: bugging in here in Grapevine. See the description of our California earthquake kit, and add a few things—particularly food and water. Even so, we have emergency bugout bags packed.....just in case. I'd prefer to bug in, but if I have to leave, I want to be able to take something with me. Our bugOUT gear is aimed at low-impact camping, and the pack being light enough that we CAN carry it on foot. Each of the two bags is similarly packed, and includes stuff like a wood-gas stove, water filters, compass, etc.

Phase 2: my long term goal is to buy land. I don't want to be a commercial farmer, but I want to be able to raise/grow enough food to meet most of my wife's and my needs. What that looks like exactly, I don't know yet, except that I don't want to live cheek by jowl with my neighbors. I want to have some breathing room. Some of the plans can't be decided until I actually have the land. But even in Phase 2, it is a bugIN plan because I plan to live and put down roots wherever I buy the land. I'm too old and fat to go on the run.

Have you checked out square foot gardening?

Actually yes, and vertical gardening too. One of my clients is Hort Americas (http://hortamericas.com/). He's been giving me ideas.

[SF18C]

Listen, there is OCD crazy, overboard, what the heck are you doing??? and then there is common sense preparation for an emergency. Now where you draw that line may not be where others will draw that line! The amount of energy, money and time are all variables based on your priorities, needs and perceived threats. We don’t hear a lot about bomb shelters in people’s back yards but way up in the north end of Texas I guess tornados are common enough that there are a fair amount of storm shelters in many of my neighbors back yards!

I think the key is to look at your situation, assess the threats to your environment and plan accordingly. If grid services were lost, if your house was damaged or “threaten” (wildfire, hurricane) what would you need to survive on in the first 48 hours, the first week and the first month! As a family we feel in most cases 2 weeks of hunking down with a backup plan of a bugout to family 400 miles in 3 different direction…North, West or South.


My Short list (this is for every member of the family packed in a go bag)
A couple of weeks’ worth of food…dry storage, MREs
2 2qt canteens
2 week of meds and vitamin packs
Small hand held walky-talky radio
Several flashlights
First aid kit and space blanket
A few changes of clothes, 2 “winters” and 2 “summers” (Got make sure the girls understand this aint for dress up time! Or at least my girls  )
Sturdy lace up boots, work type
Small tool set (screw drivers, pliers, crescent wrench)
Several pocket knives and a small hand ax
Fire making stuff (matches, lighters, flint and fire starters)
550 Paracord
Cell phone battery pack charger & car charger.


Family storage locker (most of this is packed in two foot lockers that can fit in the trunk of our vehicles)
1 month worth of food: Dry goods, MREs, Can goods.
6 each 5 gallons jugs of drinking water
Hand cranked radio
Lanterns
Tents & sleeping bags
Pots, camp eating set
Extra blankets (2 per person)
2 extra-large tarps
50lbs Dog food (yes we are gonna bug out/hunker down with Rebel and Killer!  )
20 gallons of gas

Guns and Ammo is a given and in a bug out situation all ammo will be taken and everyone know which weapon is their responsibility! Fishing gear also is close by and take too.

I know that is not everything we have on the list and we constantly refine and reorder as needed. It is important to rotate food stock and refresh batteries. About twice a year, I plan a camping trip! And these are “no notice” camping trips! Family has 15 minutes to assemble at the rally point, take a quick inventory, load up and head out to the ranch…2 night minimum! Those trips will help you refine your needs and prefect your list.

[chasfm11]

If half of the local population is ambivalent with firearms and we are seeing big shortages on generic ammo calibers (.22, 9mm, 223, .45, .380 etc) and empty shelves.

What would we do with a true and unexpected food shortage? I watch the doomsday Preppers and I see them hoarding food, medical supplies, water, and ammo and now I'm wondering if I have my priorities in order.

I think it's time for some reflection



I would appreciate some feedback. Do I need to loosen the strap on my hat or is there an opportunity to be better prepared.

I'm not a Prepper and I don't play one on TV

However. Some sobering ideas have been presented to me in the past couple of years. I started thinking about it. Then I started doing some research. Here are some suggestions about research.

1. Go back and read the stories that came out of Katrina.
2. Go back and read the stories that came out of the Alabama tornadoes a couple of years ago. The AR-15 website had a section were a guy who was not directly hit by the tornadoes but was without power wrote about his experiences.
3. Look over the recent news from Hurricane Sandy. Focus on what the individuals were going through and how they reported coping with the issues that the face.
4. Read "One Second After" and "Last Light" They focus on extremes but have reasonably consistent insight that is confirmed in the other research.

Hint: there are several common themes. Communications is almost always out and the cell phones are the first to go and the last to return. Anarchy can break out in as few as 24 hours.

Here is how I approached it:
a. I made a list of the types of problems that my family and I might face. Think outside the box. For example, we are reasonably close to Ft. Worth and a hazardous material train wreck there could cause a large area evacuation. I included a house fire, a large natural gas leak (we've already had one close by) and all the different types of things that I could imagine, large and small.
b. when you have the list, go through it and identify likelihood. For example. We are very likely to have a power outage this year. What if it is 2 hours (think about the time of year and the conditions outside), 4 hours, 2 days, 2 weeks, 2 months (yes, some Sandy victims still do not have power.)
c. make some basic decisions about stay or go. I don't want to leave my house in a tornado but I may have no choice in a wildfire.
d. based on the severity and likelihood of occurrence, make list of items that you want to have. My plan has several columns including short or long situations and the different ways that I approach each.

Some interesting questions:
1. If you had to leave your home in 20 minutes, could you? I'm not talking about physically getting out but getting away with things that you want to keep and having enough of the right stuff to be able to function from another location. A friend of mine in Colorado Springs was telling me today about how she and her husband faced exactly that problem in last year's wildfire there. 145 homes destroyed and 2 people dead was the result.
2. If you had to maintain security for an extended period of time, how would you do that? You quickly learn that it takes more than one family and more than guns.
3. In a widespread communications outage, how do you deal with emergencies? Here is a hint: All of the hospitals in Harris County just installed 2 meter Amateur (Ham) radios in their comm centers which are on their backup power. How would you get word out to remote loved ones that you are OK (or not)?

Conservatively, I've spent more than two weeks, spread across many months, working on building an emergency assessment, determining what I thought was most likely and developing priorities for purchases. As money comes available, I know what the next item is on my list and am secure about it being the right item to buy. I've networked with people who are approaching things as I am and we have had periodic meetings to discuss our successes and dilemmas. For me, it is situational awareness on steroids.

What I've discovered is that I'm much more calm that I used to be about the chaotic times in which we live. The group that I meet with is faith based so we are always looking to God for guidance. There is a lot more but I'm not ready to share all of it on a public forum. My only regret is that I didn't start sooner. It has been an eye-opening experience.

[OldCannon]

I've shared this before on other threads, but I always feel it's worth oversharing. Very moving story of long-term urban survival in Bosnia.

http://www.tacticalintelligence.net/blo ... ccount.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Wodathunkit]

Chasfm11,

I've read "one second after" the whole medical drugs not being valuable is eye opening. I see no hope in A EMP event so I just assume not even think about that.....although that book would make an awesome movie. Read "lights out", very well written and a good read.

I might just have to start a thread about good apocalyptic books (I've read a bunch)

[chasfm11]

Chasfm11,

I've read "one second after" the whole medical drugs not being valuable is eye opening. I see no hope in A EMP event so I just assume not even think about that.....although that book would make an awesome movie. Read "lights out", very well written and a good read.

I might just have to start a thread about good apocalyptic books (I've read a bunch)

As someone who has a diabetic wife, the medicine thing is not trivial. Fortunately, she is a type 2 so I don't have to worry about insulin storage.

"Last Light" is from Christian author Terri Blackstock. It does not share the fatalistic tone of "One Second After"

I, too, hope that we don't face an EMP situation but solar flares could simulate many of those effects. The value in reading those kinds of stories is not to try to build a response for an EMP but to look at the types of situations that one could face in any major emergency. The time to thing about those situations is not when the emergency occurs, any more than you would want to think about a gunfight for the first time when it happened.

[Wodathunkit]

Thanks for the book tip, I'll check that one out.

[The Annoyed Man]

Here's a tip:

What are you going to use to "buy" things with when there is no more national economy....even if it is only a temporary situation? Eventually, even if you're a prepper who is exceedingly well organized, you're going to have to be able to buy or trade for that which you were unable to provide for yourself. How can one do that?

1. One way is "Junk Silver." What is that, you might ask? 1935 and earlier "silver dollars" are 90% sterling silver. 1964 and earlier half dollars, quarters, and dimes are all 90% sterling silver. 1965-1969 half dollars are 40% sterling silver. Because of their silver content, these coins are worth MUCH MUCH MORE than their face value. For example, I currently have a small store of junk silver (working on increasing it, but it is an expensive proposition to do so). It is worth $24.65 in face value, but in silver/trade value (as of January 12th, 2012) it was worth $409.99. I just checked its value again against today's spot prices, and it has gone up to $436.20 in 11 days—an increase in value of 6.4% in just 11 days. So in round numbers, I have $436 of purchasing power in even a totally collapsed economy....and silver is only going to increase in value, at least for the foreseeable future. Any other coins that do not fall into these date streams are worth their face value only. In fact, those other coins are worth more in face value than they are in metallic value. When/if there is no more national economy, those "face value" coins will have the same value as paper money.....which is to say not much if anything. Paper money will be used for toilet paper (much like the Constitution will be used), and "face value" coins might as well be melted down for bullets. The one caveat.....If you have a REALLY rare silver coin, it may have more value as a collector's item than it does for its precious metal content, but be aware that the instant the lights go out, its value reverts to its metallic value alone. So the prepper who has a collection of valuable rare coins has a decision to make about keeping a collectible, OR trading it for its collectible value in junk silver coins.
2. Another way to have an easy commodity to use as currency is store ammunition for barter purposes. There are three ways to do this:
   
   1. When the lights go out, .22 LR ammo will account for more food on the table than will larger more powerful calibers, and a Ruger or Marlin squirrel gun will have more value by far than it does today as a fun plinker. You can store like a bazillion rounds of .22 LR in small area, and you can accumulate it easily and cheaply. Just start adding one brick of 500 rounds of .22 LR every time you go to Cabelas, and you won't even notice the cost in your monthly budget.
   2. Another thing to do now is to start handloading bulk centerfire ammo. You can build a match accurate load for half the price of a commercial match load....less than half if you're reloading already fired brass. It goes without saying that the primary calibers for doing this will be .223/5.56 NATO, .308/7.62 NATO, .30-'06; with .30-30, .270, .243 close behind. In pistol calibers, .45 ACP, 9mm, .44/.44 magnum, .38 Special/.357 magnum. So, just like the .22 LR ammo, if you space out your components purchases over time, buying a little here and a little there even though you may not be planning to reload anytime soon, you'll be sitting pretty to start handrolling your own cartridges for barter use, not to mention your own hunting/self-defense/militia use.
   3. Alternatively, each time you go to a sporting goods store, buy ONE box of 20 rounds of whatever is the cheapest 5.56 NATO ammo you can find, and set it aside for barter. Don't worry about steel case versus brass case, or copper bullets versus steel bullets. These are not for you. They are for barter to others in exchange for things that you do need.

Obviously, any combination of the above is also a viable strategy, and that happens to be my own tactic. And, if God smiles on us and none this ever comes to pass (I've read the Bible, and I for one don't believe in this particular fairy tale possibility), then you will still have a lot to leave your kids, or you can sell it for more than you paid for it because NONE of these things are ever going to get cheaper, even if the immediate crisis blows over. My junk silver is worth many times more than it was 30 years ago. Ammo prices may recover from the 2012/2013 political impact, but it will never again be as cheap as it was in 1970.......and so on. And each of these things is something that anybody can do without adding too much to their monthly budget. Heck, one night less out for dinner each month would pay for all of it.

[VMI77]

If half of the local population is ambivalent with firearms and we are seeing big shortages on generic ammo calibers (.22, 9mm, 223, .45, .380 etc) and empty shelves.

What would we do with a true and unexpected food shortage? I watch the doomsday Preppers and I see them hoarding food, medical supplies, water, and ammo and now I'm wondering if I have my priorities in order.

I think it's time for some reflection



I would appreciate some feedback. Do I need to loosen the strap on my hat or is there an opportunity to be better prepared.

Use of the word "hoarding" to describe people using THEIR OWN money to provide for themselves in an emergency signals that you have swallowed the collectivist lingo.

[Wodathunkit]

VM, I'm not an English major, what is the non-offensive/politically correct word To use? Stockpiling?

Not sure how you would stockpile (or hoard) with other people's money, and I don't understand the relevance......anyway, Grammar criticism isn't the feedback I'm searching for.

Let me rephrase my question. I have a disaster plan based on hurricanes/tropical weather. My plan does not have a contingency for long term empty shelves. Does anyone else see this as a real possibility?

[wil]

I call it simple insurance, as that's how I view it. It's the same idea, having something in place for unanticipated contingencies, we have car, house, health, and dental insurance to deal with any emergencies or contingencies which arise with those things. Emergencies come up in various forms and there's nothing paranoid about having something to meet those things and deal with them constructively.
look at what happened on the east coast just this past year, how long were those people on thier own? Assuming things have gotten back to normal by now? That situation came very close to things getting "unpleasant" on a large scale. The response to that was any better than Katrina how? Our current economic situation does not bode well for the political and/or social situation this country is in. I was in LA for the `92 summer games and it was an abject lesson in how fast things can fall apart in our "civilized" society. Based on what I saw, endured, and learned from that experience. Future difficulties are not a remote possibility and are an entirely proper topic for a frank, rational, discussion. By now anyone with common sense should realize relying on the authorities is not your best choice, relying on yourself first is your best choice. Family and real friends are your next best bet. I saw a comment in here not too long ago about "circling the wagons" amongst ourselves in light of the current legislation being proposed. I think steps towards that are a very prudent and rational idea.
I thought my own Y2K supplies were somewhat a wasted effort, until they sustained me a year later when I was out of work for 9+ months. How reliable is the job situation in this country? Not like it used to be, I wonder how comforting a thought it would be for someone who just got laid off from thier job to know there's several months worth of food in thier home that thier wife and kids have at thier disposal? Losing your job? That's not an emergency situation?
Is there a point where you're becoming obsessive about it? Maybe there is, too many 'what if" questions can lead to trying to handle impossible situations. 'What if' an asteroid strike? If you're asking questions along those lines, maybe you might want to be concerned with more immediate possibilities. Most of those have already been named in this thread. Natural disaster, economic issues, political/social issues, etc.

[VMI77]

VM, I'm not an English major, what is the non-offensive/politically correct word To use? Stockpiling?

Not sure how you would stockpile (or hoard) with other people's money, and I don't understand the relevance......anyway, Grammar criticism isn't the feedback I'm searching for.


Let me rephrase my question. I have a disaster plan based on hurricanes/tropical weather. My plan does not have a contingency for long term empty shelves. Does anyone else see this as a real possibility?

I really didn't intend it as criticism. I'm just pointing out that the left uses specific terms with negative connotations to stigmatize the behavior of those who don't toe the liberal line. The communists attacked "capitalists" for "hoarding" resources and exploiting the "worker-class." If a catastrophe does arise the left will call preppers "hoarders" and demand that the goods they have so selfishly accumulated be confiscated and redistributed among the collective because it's not "fair" that some people have food and other necessities and others don't.

"Hoarding" in communist Russia was a crime. The government stockpiles with other people's money, as would anyone on government assistance that stockpiled --though I suppose their numbers are few. I wasn't as clear as I should have been, but by the "own money" comment I was just alluding to the fact that people have a right to spend their money as they see fit, and that the term "hoarder" as used by the left, suggests people have selfishly kept an abundance of valuable resources for themselves, somehow denying them to those who "need" them.

As far as a "real" possibility goes.....indeed, economic collapse is mathematically inevitable. What form it will take and when it will occur --I don't know. But If you're younger that 50, or maybe even 60, it is very likely to occur in your lifetime.

[Wodathunkit]

VM, I'm not an English major, what is the non-offensive/politically correct word To use? Stockpiling?

Not sure how you would stockpile (or hoard) with other people's money, and I don't understand the relevance......anyway, Grammar criticism isn't the feedback I'm searching for.


Let me rephrase my question. I have a disaster plan based on hurricanes/tropical weather. My plan does not have a contingency for long term empty shelves. Does anyone else see this as a real possibility?

I really didn't intend it as criticism. I'm just pointing out that the left uses specific terms with negative connotations to stigmatize the behavior of those who don't toe the liberal line. I never claimed to be as smart as a lib.

As far as a "real" possibility goes.....indeed, economic collapse is mathematically inevitable. What form it will take and when it will occur --I don't know. But If you're younger that 50, or maybe even 60, it is very likely to occur in your lifetime.

. That is scary, I'm 42, and I live with 4.2million of my closest friends right here on the coast near Houston.

Thanks for responding back!

[chasfm11]

VM, I'm not an English major, what is the non-offensive/politically correct word To use? Stockpiling?

Not sure how you would stockpile (or hoard) with other people's money, and I don't understand the relevance......anyway, Grammar criticism isn't the feedback I'm searching for.

Let me rephrase my question. I have a disaster plan based on hurricanes/tropical weather. My plan does not have a contingency for long term empty shelves. Does anyone else see this as a real possibility?

During WWII, there was rationing - some food, tires, gasoline, etc. The government issued the ration coupons which you then could take to a store that sold the product that you wanted and make your purchase. It still took money but you supposedly could not make the purchase without the coupon. It was NOT a free market situation.

As always seems to happen, those with political pull and crooks could get ration coupons when noone else could. There was a blackmarket. Many of those with pull would use their power to collect rationed items. That was hoarding. This is second hand from my parents who lived through it and had stories to tell.

Talk to people in NJ about long term food. Granted, some of the homes were completely demolished and any stored food would have been lost. Many more were spared but no trucks could get in and out so there was no gas for months in some locations (we have friends there) and often not much food. Because of the gas situation, many could not travel to areas that did have food to purchase it.
This is just one example.

Other options:
1. Wide spread, elongated power outage. The Texas grid has been hit by coal plan shut downs (thank you EPA) and the natural gas replacement plants are not coming on line as fast as the grid requirements are growing.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013 ... er-reserve
Depending on the nature of the problem (natural disaster takes out significant power plant capacity) it could be weeks to months before full power is restored to everyone.

2. Financial collapse. In my planning group, this is the highest fear that we collectively have. Assuming that happens, recovery could take months. How likely? You take your best guess. I have mine. There are predictable cycles of events that would likely follow.

There are more. Again, just thinking that it COULD happen does not mean that it WILL happen and some potential events are more likely than others. Your question was about the likelihood of needing long term food. For me that is two months or more. The more relevant question for me is, what happens if you do need it and don't have it? It is kinda like the BG shows up while you are at the grocery store and your EDC is back at the house. It probably isn't going to be good after that.