Uploading the original text of the full (and at times somewhat headscratchingly odd) ruling of the 9th Circuit Courts of Appeals on the Motion for Stay of an Order of the United States District Court for the Western District of Washington, James L. Robart, District Judge, Presiding.
STATE OF WASHINGTON; STATE OF MINNESOTA, Plaintiffs-Appellees, v. DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States; U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; REX W. TILLERSON, Secretary of State; JOHN F. KELLY, Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security; UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Defendants-Appellants.
The 9th Circuit appellate court is, and has been, in it's own little Kalifornia world for many years. Its decisions are the most reversed of any Circuit when heard before the Supreme Court. In 2012 alone, an amazing 86% of their cases accepted by SCOTUS were overturned.
I don't believe this one will go to the Supremes, though. A) SCOTUS almost never accepts cases that deal with matters that are date-limited...and this one, now with less than 76 days left on the initial 90-day window, would be difficult to squeeze into the docket even if they chose to; B) I think Gorsuch still has an 8- to 10-week fight ahead of him before an adequate number of dems cave and he is sworn in without use of "the nuclear option." POTUS doesn't want anything going to a SCOTUS that could result in a 4-all deadlock.
I think we'll see one of two things. First is that POTUS could go back to the 9th and call for an
en banc appeal for the ruling to be reconsidered by 11 judges, not just the three who unanimously wrote yesterday's decision. The administration has two weeks to file. With the 9th being the most left-leaning in the country, the odds of an administration-friendly outcome is still not good. But I don't know if there's any real downside to chasing it that way, and my gut says President Trump would rather fight than switch.
But the switch is a viable second choice, and my money is on this as the final outcome. I think a new executive order will be written, one paying homage to green carders and being much more deferential to current visa holders while still putting some teeth into immigrant vetting. If crafted well, it should be tough for any to legally challenge under U.S. Code Title 3 and the Immigration and Nationality Act. Arguably, with more time and preparation on the initial order this could all have been much cleaner with smoother sailing from the start, but que sera.
In the end, we'll still end up with a period of much tighter control over foreign arrivals, while a long-term, tougher vetting process is put in place. Ultimately the Washington and Minnesota lawsuit is just wasting time and taxpayer money over a political, partisan hissy, and in less than a month we'll end up where we need to be anyway.