TexasCHLforum.com

LDP wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:05 pm So the dimocratic libtards who employ their scare tactics in our state claim that with the current lenient measures, TX will see 1/2 million dead from the virus.

Do you have a source for this claim of 500,000 potential deaths in Texas?

Rob72 wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm

srothstein wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:31 pm I found this article on why we should not be trying to flatten the curve. Interesting read.

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening ... rS7gYJ6fPE

Silo-thinking. Quarantine buys time to develop treatments/vaccines, to localize hotspots so that resources may be allocated rather than having the same problem everywhere. I'm a research nurse, actively working. It helps.

Yes, Pennsford is a financial consultant that, only sees this in financial terms, is very quick to put a price on human life, and misses two key points. (1) Second and third wave infections will not be as bad as the first, due to the herd immunity provided by those who survived the first wave of infection, as well as better testing and preparedness, and the greater likelihood of new vaccines or therapeutic drugs. (2) More importantly, they ignore that the main goal of flattening the curve is to avoid overwhelming the health care system, as has happened in Wuhan, Italy, and Spain. They argue that leaders should act on economic, as opposed to medical, concerns, but ignore the reality that politicians are ultimately driven by political concerns. Trump’s initial dismissive approach changed when pictures came out of Italy showing critically ill patients on cots in tents on the sidewalks in front of hospitals. His hope of “filling the churches on Easter” dimmed when we saw patients lying on blankets on the floors of hospital hallways in Spain. Scenes like that in hospitals of American states with big Electoral College numbers would not bode well for November re-election hopes.

Well, here's something I hadn't considered: https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coro ... 02066.html

Hungry rats swarm New Orleans streets as coronavirus closes restaurants, bars

"With French Quarter bars and restaurants shuttered by a coronavirus lockdown, rats emboldened by hunger are swarming deserted New Orleans streets at night, WHTM reports."

"Tour guides and restaurateurs report seeing rats swarming the streets at night in search of something to eat, according to [CBS News]."

"'There are pathogens in these rodents,' Regal said [Claudia Riegel, director of the City of New Orleans Mosquito, Termite, and Rodent Control Board], according to the network. 'We don’t have very many disease cases that are actually related to rodents. But the potential is there.'"

Makes you think of cities with huge homeless populations, doesn't it? If there's nothing at all to eat in the old hangouts, critters aren't going to just roll over and die. They're going to go hunting...

Rafe wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:30 am Well, here's something I hadn't considered: https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coro ... 02066.html

Hungry rats swarm New Orleans streets as coronavirus closes restaurants, bars

"With French Quarter bars and restaurants shuttered by a coronavirus lockdown, rats emboldened by hunger are swarming deserted New Orleans streets at night, WHTM reports."

Unrelated to COVID, one of the most unsettling things I ever witnessed was in Bangkok a bunch of years ago. Was walking around downtown when a giant rainstorm hit. The water started cresting the curbs and running into the many open shops/restaurants. Rats started pouring out of the shops and onto the sidewalks/street. Truly disturbing. I didn't see anyone get approached by any rats, but, the memory still causes me to shiver.

RoyGBiv wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:04 am

Rafe wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:30 am Well, here's something I hadn't considered: https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coro ... 02066.html

Hungry rats swarm New Orleans streets as coronavirus closes restaurants, bars

"With French Quarter bars and restaurants shuttered by a coronavirus lockdown, rats emboldened by hunger are swarming deserted New Orleans streets at night, WHTM reports."

Unrelated to COVID, one of the most unsettling things I ever witnessed was in Bangkok a bunch of years ago. Was walking around downtown when a giant rainstorm hit. The water started cresting the curbs and running into the many open shops/restaurants. Rats started pouring out of the shops and onto the sidewalks/street. Truly disturbing. I didn't see anyone get approached by any rats, but, the memory still causes me to shiver.

In China, they would have gotten out a knife and fork and starting eating them alive.

Want to see how the mainstream media lies and misleads us. Watch these two videos about hospitals in Italy and New York. Notice how CBS used the video from Italy as if it was showing a hospital in NY. Manipulation

Sky News at beginning of video
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr0GWo ... =emb_title

CBS 1:20 into the video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWm0yto ... e=youtu.be

philip964 wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:59 am

philip964 wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:01 pm

philip964 wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:58 am

philip964 wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:45 am

philip964 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:07 pm

philip964 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:44 am

philip964 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:08 am

philip964 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:11 pm

philip964 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:04 pm

philip964 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:47 am

March 20.2020- 246,000 world. 10,040 dead. 14,250 infected US, 205 dead. 41,035 Italy, 3405 dead. 81,250 China. Texas has 307 Houston at 77.

March 21, 2020- 297,090 world. 12,755 dead. 22,177 infected US, 340 dead. 53,578 Italy ,4825 dead. 81,304 China Texas has 434 Houston at 117.

March 22, 2020- 318,662 world, 13,672 dead. 27,004 infected US,
347 dead. 53,578 Italy, 4,825 dead. 81,397 China. Texas has 557 with 5 deaths. Houston at 154.

March 23, 2020- 354,677 cases worldwide with 15430 dead. 35,345 infected US, 473 dead. 59,138 Italy with 5,476 dead. 81,496 China. Texas has 674 with 8 deaths. Houston 166 with 2 deaths.

March 24, 2020 am- 396,249 cases worldwide with 17,252 dead. 46,805 infected US, 593 dead. 63,927 Italy with 6,077 dead. 81,591 China (is anyone believing this). Texas has 807 with 9 deaths. Houston 199 with 2 Deaths.

March 25, 2020 pm- 468,523 cases worldwide with 21,192 dead. 66,132 infected US, 947 dead. 74,386 Italy with 7,503 dead. 81,667 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 33,006 with 366 deaths. Louisiana has 1,795 with 65 deaths. Texas has 1,289 with 16 deaths. Houston 371 with 2 deaths.

March 26, 2020 am. 492,603 cases worldwide with 22,184 dead. 69,210 infected US, 1,046 dead. 74,386 Italy with 7,503 dead. 81,782 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 33,006 with 366 deaths. Louisiana has 1,795 with 65 deaths. Texas has 1,353 with 17 deaths. Houston 372 with 2 deaths.

March 27, 2020 am. 553,244 cases worldwide with 25,935 dead. 86,012 infected US, 1,301 dead. 80,589 Italy with 8,215 dead. 81,897 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 39,140 with 461 deaths. Louisiana has 2,304 with 83 deaths. Texas has 1,353 with 17 deaths. Houston 461 with 3 deaths.

March 28, 2020 12:48 pm. 640,589 cases worldwide with 29,848 dead. 112,458 infected US, 1,841 dead. 92,472 Italy with10,023 dead. 81,999 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 52,318 with 728 deaths. Louisiana has 2,746 with 119 deaths. Texas has 2,026 with 26 deaths. Houston 543 with 4 deaths.

March 29, 2020 10:48 am. 684,652 cases worldwide with 32,113 dead. 124,763 infected US, 2,187 dead. 92,472 Italy with (no data) dead. 82,120 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 53,520 with 834 deaths. Louisiana has 3,315 with 137 deaths. Texas has 2,535 with 34 deaths. Houston 810 with 6 deaths.

March 30, 2020 10:01 am. 741,030 cases worldwide with 35,114 dead. 143,532 infected US, 2,572 dead 4,865 recovered. 97,689 Italy with 10,779 dead. 82,198 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 60,679 with 1,026 deaths. Louisiana has 3,540 with 151deaths. Texas has 2,306 with 34 deaths. Houston 929 with 8 deaths.

So an accountant friend posed this question. Your a lending company with loans- you have payed off loans, loans that defaulted and required repossession and total loans made.

Lets say the name of your lending company is the USA. Here is the data for the USA.

USA
1.Total loans made 143,532
2. Payed off loans 4,865
3. Defaulted loans required repossession 2,572

4. Active loans = (1. - 2. - 3.) = 136,096 loans

5. Percent of loans that defaulted and required repossession = ( 3. /( 2.+ 3.) ) = 34.58 %

6. Active loans that will default in the future = ( 4. x 5. ) = 47,061 loans

7. Total defaults if no new loans made = ( 6. + 3. ) = 49,633 loans

Your company makes about 18,769 new loans a day. Your bosses say they are tightening loan restrictions, but each day the number of new loans increase. They also say they have better ways of preventing default, but at the same time they worry the overheated economy could cause a crash of defaults.

Outsiders point to the age of your company and suggest looking at an older mortgage company for a better prediction of future defaults. You decide to look at the Italy lending company and their data.

Italy
1.Total loans made 97,689
2. Payed off loans 13,030
3. Defaulted loans required repossession 10,779

4. Active loans = (1. - 2. - 3.) = 73,880 loans

5. Percent of loans that defaulted and required repossession = ( 3. /( 2.+ 3.) ) = 45.27 %

6. Active loans that will default in the future = ( 4. x 5. ) = 36,161 loans

7. Total defaults if no new loans made = ( 6. + 3. ) = 46,940 loans

Your business associates say Italy is not a good example choice as it also has older underwriting requirements.

You suggest the UK lending company with a percentage of default at 89.07% rate. Your business associates complain that UK lending like Italy have very Socialist underwriting requirements.

They suggest China with a default rate at 4.17% or Iran with a default rate at 16.54% or Germany with a default rate at 5.73%

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... g-11965122

Lockdown after 15 - 20 days, social unrest is brewing. People are running out of money and food. Government fear Mafia may take over in Southern Italy.

Are they the canary in the mine?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2VttrzzwVM

Listen to the real numbers folks.

Chas.

Very good information. Thank you for posting this Charles.

People don't get it, whole families going to Walmart, mom dad and kids. Just one adult should go. Galveston beaches being closed because people aren't smart enough to stay home. NYC kids out playing basketball. Houston area has 997 cases when just a few days ago the number was around 300. Stay home!

striker55 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:23 pm People don't get it, whole families going to Walmart, mom dad and kids. Just one adult should go. Galveston beaches being closed because people aren't smart enough to stay home. NYC kids out playing basketball. Houston area has 997 cases when just a few days ago the number was around 300. Stay home!

I have noticed the family outings myself. I repair A/C so I have to be out and about to keep people cooling. I stopped at Lowes to pick up a few filters. A/C supply houses are making it hard to buy from. I saw many couples and a few entire families in there wondering around. Went to Walmart to get a hose. Lady in front of me had three kids with her. Saw many couples shopping for lawn and garden supplies. I get it. People get bored sitting at home but it reminds me of "ice days" when the roads are bad early in the morning so people stay home from work. By 10 AM they are all out shopping and getting food. Too dangerous to work but not to dangerous to go shopping. Human nature at work.