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I've hesitated to post this, given today's environment. I decided to try with the limitation that the discussion centers on this question:

Is an ordinary citizen at greater risk of a violent confrontation with police now that say 5 years ago?

The genesis of the question was a discussion, sometimes heated, with 9 year police veteran from one of local communities. I don't remember exactly how the subject of interactions came up but I happened to mention that I keep a "man bag" (a soft sided computer case that is my catchall for a first aid kit, a tactical flashlight, a Leatherman, a 8x11 tablet, pencils etc. Included in one of the inner pouches is my BUG. What launched the heat into the discussion was my mentioning that my wallet was also in that bag. Upon learning that, he told me that I was just asking to get shot.

As context, I haven't had a moving violation since 1979, one of 3 in my entire 50+ year driving career. I've probably driven close to 1M miles in most of the Continental US, Hawaii and several European countries. I don't believe myself to be a target for a traffic stop anytime soon but it could happen. I don't plan to do anything different with my bag but the conversation has puzzled me.

His take was that I was just asking for trouble and need to modify my practices. He lectured me on how to handle a traffic stop without asking me what I would do. I've rehearsed that 100s of times - hands on the wheel, tell the officer that I want to move only with his instructions. I have viewed my reaching for my wallet before telling him that I have an LTC and am carrying - because of the BUG - to be a mistake. My discussion partner immediately ratcheted up the conversation by simulating barking at me to provide my TX DL # (which I know by heart thanks to frequently checking my then CHL issue status online.) I responded.

Here's my take. Officers are less likely to escalate a situation, even with an old white guy. My discussion partner seemed to think that more officers are on edge and related a very recent interaction that he had had at a traffic stop when he showed the officer his DL and LTC. He and worked our way through some of the high profile situations - Waller, Jefferson, Castile, Brooks and essentially ended up agreeing to disagree. He said that he left police work because he could tell that support for the profession was waning.

I will say directly that his manner was exactly what I hope I never have to meet in an officer. I have hearing loss and quickly lose consonants when words are barked at me. He was very prone to lecture me and I bristle at that approach. I'm not stupid enough to deliberately put myself in danger while interacting with an officer who pulled me over but I would be in the PD post hast filling out a complaint if I was treated the way he indicated that he would.

So please, please, please let's not turn this into an attack on police. I'm a great supporter. At the same time, I'm looking for other perspectives. Jerry Waller's situation was too close to home for me. i never bought the story line. I don't want to be Waller 2.0.

I think you could say I am a supporter of police in general, but I freely admit there are some cops who need to get out of law enforcement and some reform is truly needed. I think your friend does have some valid points, but that he may be overestimating the results.

A lot of people are leaving the law enforcement field right now. Most of them, but certainly not all, are good cops who have their time in to retire. I may be earlier than they planned to retire, but I have to admit there is a certain amount of pleasure in being able to retire when you want to, even if you know you will need to find another job to pay the bills. Most of these people are watching the news and seeing that the support for law enforcement is waning. Many of them that think about it realize it is not the public support, but the administrative and political support that counts. Two recent examples that made the news were the officer who made the TikTok video pretending to call Lebron James getting suspended and the officer who was asked if he was going to shoot a suspect like they did Ma'khiah Bryant and answered by asking if the suspect was goign to stab someone like she did being fired for his answer. Both show that the administration did not support the officers. Even worse was the reinstatement of the one officer who was fired because some other famous people supported hi and organized a petition demanding his job back. The reinstatement shows the chief will just blow in the wind and respond to what the noisiest people want instead of doing what is right. More of it is shown when officers get indicted for doing their job (remember the four officers in Atlanta indicted for using a Taser on subjects in a car resisting them?).

So, there is a definite moral problem in law enforcement and it does show with officers being touchier about certain things. But cops are always going to be cops, including smarting off to stupid questions and problems. So, now we need to look at how touchy cops are about what you do. Yes, with all of the recent attacks on law enforcement, cops are much warier about who they are dealing with. Your discussion partner showed this by lecturing you about how you carry the weapon and wallet instead of asking how you planned to handle it and warning you that an officer could take it wrong. But since most people do behave at a traffic stop, I do not truly see this as a problem for the "average" citizen. And as I have said before, cops are inherently lazy and more of them are stopping any proactive work like traffic stops. They both have a fear of the stop and a fear of their bosses and the best way to avoid both is not to make any stops.

Overall, there is a very slightly greater chance of an encounter with a cop going bad, IMO. But combine it with a smaller chance of encountering a cop overall, and I would say the average citizen is in about the same condition as before.