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Self Defense Statistics?

Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2010 9:50 pm
by KFP
I hear a lot of stats indicating that most shootings occur in no/low light environments and the majority of times there are multiple attackers. Does anyone have good sources for these stats?

I'm most curious in:

% of shootings in no/low light environments

% of attacks with multiple attackers

Average number of shots fired

Average number of shots per attacker

Anything other pertinent stats

I realize it's a tall order, but think that having the stats would help us all make more informed decisions in making decisions on what best suits our carry needs.

Re: Self Defense Statistics?

Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2010 10:36 pm
by seamusTX
There is no comprehensive source of this information.

You can start here: http://www.google.com/search?q=gary+kleck+john+lott" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

John Lott and Gary Kleck have done more work on non-LEO defensive use of weapons than anyone else.

I can say from my casual observation of the news and other accounts that at least half of criminal assaults take place at night -- home break-ins, robberies of businesses, or skulduggery in isolated places.

Quite a few have multiple assailants, though often only one of the assailants has a firearm.

The number of shots fired in civilian non-LEO defense is low -- generally fewer than seven. Most bad guys will flee at the sight of a weapon, let alone when they are in the way of incoming fire. (That may not be true of deranged lunatics, including people who have a serious personal grudge, such as ex-husbands or fired employees).

IMHO, the issue isn't how often certain events occur statistically. You have to be prepared for a reasonable worst case. In other words, you have to be prepared for what actually happens to you, not for what happens on average.

- Jim

Re: Self Defense Statistics?

Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2010 11:32 pm
by ELB
You can also compile some of your own, starting with this: http://www.thearmedcitizen.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Altho it has the same name as the NRA's American Rifleman column, it is not an NRA effort. It originally started as the Civilian Gun Self-Defense Blog.

Clayton Cramer and some others started compiling news stories of citizen self defense use of guns back in (I think) 2002 in response to an anti-gun professor's allegation that such use was rare. Of course, you have to read all these stories and compile the stats yourself! From doing similar things myself, you will find that news articles often are missing a lot of details, such as number of shots fired (they may say something like "multiple"). Time of day usually seems to be indicated. And of course this compilation is not necessarily all such events, just the ones that Clayton and others have found on the internet (but he does seem to do a good job of getting pretty much all the ones I see).

In April 2009, Mr. Cramer posted that the collection of stories had amounted to 4000. He published some stats based on those 4000 stories. You can find the post here: http://www.claytoncramer.com/weblog/200 ... 2914958524" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Borrowing a bit from that post:
There were 212 incidents involving concealed carry permit holders.

Not every outcome was happy. There were 30 incidents in which the defender was killed (although often saving the life of another, or preventing the attacker from escaping). There were 191 incidents in which the defender was shot (although not necessarily killed).

For all the talk by gun control advocates that "a criminal will just take away your gun and use against you" there were only six incidents in which the defender's gun was taken away and used against the defender. By comparison, there were 183 incidents in which the criminal's gun was taken away and used against the criminal! More startling is that many of these involved victims that were unarmed at the start of the crime.

There were 67 female defenders, and 15 defenders under the age of 18.

Sobering numbers: there were 90 criminals identified as being under 18, and 1009 of these incidents were home invasions--where the criminals intentionally broke into a dwelling that they knew was occupied.

For all the talk of inadequately trained civilians, we have one incident involving mistaken identity.
Tagging onto what Seamus said, preparing for the "average" may leave you "unprepared" for a significant number of possible outcomes. I tend to look more at the peaks (or maybe they are valleys?).

Re: Self Defense Statistics?

Posted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 8:56 am
by seamusTX
ELB wrote:And of course this compilation is not necessarily all such events, just the ones that Clayton and others have found on the internet...
News accounts and other anecdotes are the best information that most of us have access to. It should be noted that, for the most part, only robberies (including home invasions and carjackings) and assaults where shots are fired make it into the news.

An unknown number of crimes, perhaps ten times more, are aborted by the defender brandishing a weapon without shots being fired. Some of these incidents are never reported to the police or do not make it into the news even if they are reported.

Therefore, we cannot have valid statistics, which take into account a full range of crime situations without preselection.

I think the information that we have is adequate for making informed decisions, though.

- Jim

Re: Self Defense Statistics?

Posted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 9:16 pm
by KFP
Interesting reading - thank you both! :tiphat: