TexasCHLforum.com

I've seen stats that say there are approximately 500,000 CHLs in Texas. I have never seen any stats that say, or estimate, what percentage of Texas vehicles on the road have a gun in them.

Has anyone ever read of such a study or stat? Thanks in advance...

How could you do a reliable study? If you did a telephone survey, some people would deny carrying, for various reasons. If you used traffic stops as a sample, you run into significant selection bias.

tbrown wrote:How could you do a reliable study? If you did a telephone survey, some people would deny carrying, for various reasons. If you used traffic stops as a sample, you run into significant selection bias.

"I" couldn't do a reliable study. I'm not well schooled in polling and statistics and such techniques. I have, however, seen studies/estimates for virtually every imaginable thing under the sun and was wondering if anyone ever read of one that had to do with what percentage of cars/trucks on the road in Texas had guns in them...

I believe the "you" was rhetorical. The only way I can think of to accurately predict something like this would be full scale registration and no private sales. Even then the chances of a state that requires registration allowing individuals to carry firearms in their vehicles is slim.

This is Texas. Doesn't everyone have at least one in their pickup truck?

karl wrote:I believe the "you" was rhetorical. The only way I can think of to accurately predict something like this would be full scale registration and no private sales. Even then the chances of a state that requires registration allowing individuals to carry firearms in their vehicles is slim.

I just read a number of studies about the percentage of American households that have guns. Many were produced from telephone polls. there are literally hundreds of such studies on the interweb. One group, Gallup, if I recall, has been compiling such data since 1959.

I don't know much about polling and compiling statistics, but I see no reason that similar techniques could not be used for estimating the number of Texas vehicles in which people carry a gun.

This is not a big deal to me, I was just wondering if such a study had ever been done as I was driving to San Antonio this morning...

Jeff Barriault wrote:This is Texas. Doesn't everyone have at least one in their pickup truck?

That's the assumption I live by.

As of 12/31/2010 there were 461,724 active CHL holders (SOURCE). I can't find them right now, but there have been previous discussions here regarding the percentage of CHL holders who actually carry a gun, and with what frequency or degree of regularity; and those discussions seem to conclude that it isn't even close to 100%. That seems reasonable to me, although there may be some room for dispute regarding what that percentage actually is. Heck, let's say it's 50%......that's about 1% of the total population of the state. Add into that number whatever citizens actually know that it is legal for them to carry a gun in their vehicle under MPA and then actually do so (my observation is that a LOT of people, even pro-gun people believe it or not, don't seem to actually be aware of the MPA). Add in those people (and I know this is a twist, but stay with me now....) who are otherwise law-abiding, but carry a gun in their vehicle under the mistaken belief that they are breaking a law. Then add in the odd criminally minded person....and it still probably doesn't add up to a significant percentage of the state's population.

Jeff Barriault wrote:This is Texas. Doesn't everyone have at least one in their pickup truck?

If you ain't packing, you're slacking, right?

Seriously, I am not aware of any studies of this type, but it would not be hard to do. The way to get somewhat honest replies on studies of this type is to not ask outright whether they carry or not. There is a principle in polling that says you can get an honest answer by asking if the person would be likely to do so in the future. If I remember the class correctly, it is based on the concept of people being more honest when asked that way combined with the reverse of the concept that the best indicator of future behavior is the person's current behavior.

I find it interesting that you asked this because I am supposed to be writing a paper on a very similar topic right now. The paper is due Tuesday evening and is on the question of whether or not allowing citizens to possess or carry firearms will affect the crime rate. So far, I have found studies saying the crime rate goes up, goes down, and is not affected.

srothstein wrote:

Jeff Barriault wrote:This is Texas. Doesn't everyone have at least one in their pickup truck?

If you ain't packing, you're slacking, right?

Seriously, I am not aware of any studies of this type, but it would not be hard to do. The way to get somewhat honest replies on studies of this type is to not ask outright whether they carry or not. There is a principle in polling that says you can get an honest answer by asking if the person would be likely to do so in the future. If I remember the class correctly, it is based on the concept of people being more honest when asked that way combined with the reverse of the concept that the best indicator of future behavior is the person's current behavior.

I find it interesting that you asked this because I am supposed to be writing a paper on a very similar topic right now. The paper is due Tuesday evening and is on the question of whether or not allowing citizens to possess or carry firearms will affect the crime rate. So far, I have found studies saying the crime rate goes up, goes down, and is not affected.

I think the first question you would have to ask is if they were aware that they could legally carry under MPA. Then ask if they would be likely to legally carry a firearm in their car in the future. This would give you two sets of data - peoples knowledge of current law and if they would or would not carry.

for you srothstein

Had this for my desktop for a couple of years.

That's awesome.

jmra wrote:I think the first question you would have to ask is if they were aware that they could legally carry under MPA. Then ask if they would be likely to legally carry a firearm in their car in the future. This would give you two sets of data - peoples knowledge of current law and if they would or would not carry.

Being advised as to the MPA, by a LEO, is what started me down the path. I now try to make sure people know about the fact that they can carry in their car.

RJ

srothstein wrote:I find it interesting that you asked this because I am supposed to be writing a paper on a very similar topic right now. The paper is due Tuesday evening and is on the question of whether or not allowing citizens to possess or carry firearms will affect the crime rate. So far, I have found studies saying the crime rate goes up, goes down, and is not affected.

One of the best researchers on this topic is John Lott. You should check out his book More Guns, Less Crime.

karl wrote:I believe the "you" was rhetorical. The only way I can think of to accurately predict something like this would be full scale registration and no private sales. Even then the chances of a state that requires registration allowing individuals to carry firearms in their vehicles is slim.

The grammar police would say it's "How could one do a reliable study?"

However, I pay no attention to the grammar police until they lock up the people who axe me questions.