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I saw this video last night on the news. Horrifying! I have a repeating nightmare every 6 months or so of this very image where I'm standing in my yard and watch a plane fall from the sky just like that.

jayinsat wrote:I saw this video last night on the news. Horrifying! I have a repeating nightmare every 6 months or so of this very image where I'm standing in my yard and watch a plane fall from the sky just like that.

Same here. Wish Carl Jung were still around to interpret this one.

I distinctly remember the night before the Lockerbie 747 bombing having a dream about a plane coming to pieces in the air, and then crashing and exploding on the ground in front of me.

They are thinking maybe the cargo broke loose during takeoff and shifted to the rear of the plane causing it to go nose up and stall. Pretty horrifying. Prayers for the families of the crew.

Saw the video this morning... right before getting onto a plane out of Afghanistan

Pretty awful seeing that. I heard through the grapevine that the company lost a significant percentage of their personnel in the crash (8 I think??). From what I've heard and can see, it looks like a severely aft CG condition, which means their load probably shifted.

It's been a bad couple of weeks for Afghanistan aviation... chopper went down in the east, the 747, an MC12 (we work with those guys sometimes) crashed and lost all crew, heck we even lost one of our birds, at least it was unmanned. I'd be lying if I said I was completely comfortable with my upcoming 16 hour flight to Dallas.

I've heard about this, but didn't see it until now. Wow.... that is so sad.

Like you all, I've had dreams like this. I've also seen planes that I swear aren't moving, but they are. When you're in the car, sometimes the moving land below makes them look like they're hovering. Watching this video, I'm sure I would make that assumption again, but as soon as that nose turns down, whoa... I can't imagine how I'd react.

All that being said, I pray for those who were in that plane and their families. I can't imagine what they went through and are going through.

MadMonkey wrote:Saw the video this morning... right before getting onto a plane out of Afghanistan

Pretty awful seeing that. I heard through the grapevine that the company lost a significant percentage of their personnel in the crash (8 I think??). From what I've heard and can see, it looks like a severely aft CG condition, which means their load probably shifted.

It's been a bad couple of weeks for Afghanistan aviation... chopper went down in the east, the 747, an MC12 (we work with those guys sometimes) crashed and lost all crew, heck we even lost one of our birds, at least it was unmanned. I'd be lying if I said I was completely comfortable with my upcoming 16 hour flight to Dallas.

My Prayers are with you MadMonkey. Stay safe.

At impact with a full load of fuel, all died instantly, brain cannot react fast enough to feel a thing. Sadness would haunt their families for a while. The explosion was enormous

sad

Keith B wrote:They are thinking maybe the cargo broke loose during takeoff and shifted to the rear of the plane causing it to go nose up and stall. Pretty horrifying. Prayers for the families of the crew.

That's what it looks like. Pilot didn't even have time to bring the gear up. Its hard to tell from the angle but it looked like he was in a proper combat climb which is pulling back on the yoke hard enough to gain altitude as quickly as you can without hitting stall speed. He is trying to get as much altitude as quickly as possible to avoid any possible ground fire. Then it looks like he quickly pitches up to somewhere around 60 to 70 degrees AOA. At that point it was all over. He didn't have the power to fight it. He couldn't trade altitude for airspeed. He might have been trying to slam the left engines to max in order to arc over and maybe get some speed and fly it out... gutsy move if that is what he did. But he had no chance that low and slow. He ran out of altitude, airspeed and ideas all at the same time. Tragic loss. RIP to the crew. The load master is a very important position!

Wow. Tragic. All caught on camera..

I heard that the plane was carrying 5 MRAPs to Dubai. If so, at 14+ tons each, it was pretty loaded down and if those shifted to the rear during the climb....

Beiruty wrote:At impact with a full load of fuel, all died instantly, brain cannot react fast enough to feel a thing. Sadness would haunt their families for a while. The explosion was enormous

appx 19 seconds of troubled flight time until crash, they may not have suffered but sure knew something was coming.

gthaustex wrote:Wow. Tragic. All caught on camera..

I heard that the plane was carrying 5 MRAPs to Dubai. If so, at 14+ tons each, it was pretty loaded down and if those shifted to the rear during the climb....

Last I heard, that's exactly what they think happened (with "they" meaning "random internet peeps"). Still, I'll be surprised if the NTSB comes to a substantially different conclusion. I mean I guess it could've been an elevator issue, but I think they train you for that before letting you fly something as big and expensive as a 747 (and as nose-up as it got before tipping over, if an MRAP wasn't loose at the beginning, I wouldn't be surprised if one was by the end).

Keith B wrote:They are thinking maybe the cargo broke loose during takeoff and shifted to the rear of the plane causing it to go nose up and stall. Pretty horrifying. Prayers for the families of the crew.

Definitely looked like a load shift. Weight and Balance is super important on aircraft. I took a Weight and Balance class a while back while working on my A&P License. It only takes a small miscalculation to cause so serious problems. That's what killed Pop singer Aaliyah. The plane was overloaded and the center of gravity was positioned beyond its rear limit. Big Aircraft such as that are usually balanced with a computer program but if the load shifts unexpectedly it can be very dangerous. He was taking off at a very aggressive angle I am guessing to avoid chances of ground fire.

It's way too early to know what happened or even take an educated guess. For whatever reason, the aircraft stalled. Not near enough altitude to recover. Cause(s) may include, but are not limited to:

Load shift (excessive aft CG)
Flight control failure
Power failure
Instrument failure (erroneous indication of pitch angle or airspeed)
Crew error
and many other possibilities.

Investigators will eventually figure it out, but it will take time.