TexasCHLforum.com

I was having a discussion at a 4th of July party with a man who said he is scared of guns and doesn't like to be around him.

I mentioned that he must be scared all the time because, statistically speaking, when he goes to a movie, between 7 and 10 people will be armed. There are probably 5 or 10 people armed when he goes to the grocery store. And I guaranteed that there are people in Wal-Mart that are armed every time he goes there.

I've been wondering today how accurate I was. I was working off the numbers of 2.5% of Texans have their CHL.

Does anyone know if this figure is correct? I think it once was, but I don't know if it's changed.

last count I heard of CHLs issued by State of Texas was somewhere about 450,000
in 2012, there was about 26,000,000 people in texas
So about 1.7% of the people have CHLs
Or about 1 in 23 people (or so) have CHLs

Of those 1 in 23 (or so), how many carry all the time, vs "I have a CHL but only carry when I go to the bad part of town"?

My guess is in reality, probably 1 in 40 people may have a gun (legally) on them out in public

Now when you consider MPA and CHLs, and for those who may (legally) have guns in their car a majority of the time, it could be more like 5% or so. Of course this is just my estimation.

...don't forget the ones that are carrying _illegally_ (and that number is also non-trivial, depending on your location)

2.5% is close.
Slathering some google sauce on the problem reveals:

584850 license holders
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/re ... tr2012.pdf

26059203 Texans

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/48000.html

584850/26059203 or 2.24%

Around 2% seems right. Don't forget about 25% are to young for a chl. About another 15% are over 65 and while I know several over 65 who carry you can logically assume with progression of age fewer will carry for medical or physical reasons as they get older. Who else? Felons or mentally disabled. What about illegals?What percentage is that? I wouldn't be surprised if all said and done almost 40% cant carry for these reasons. Also don't forget that while maybe 2% carry in the state the demographics of your area could be much higher. I wouldn't be surprised if 10%+in my zipcode which as of last time I checked the Dps website is the highest in the state.

You can also add the approximate 75k active duty LEO's in TEXAS. Then all the federal officers (BP, Customs, US Marshall, DEA, FBI, ect) Then add the retired LEO's. Don't know the # there, but I know lots of retired leo's from other states that are now living in this great state. Not all carry, but many do. Then all the MPA people. I would imagine many are carrying their weapons illegally when away from the car. Then add all the criminals that are carrying illegally. Chances are there is a weapon some where.

Thanks, guys.