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FBI "prevents" 150 mass shootings in 2013

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 11:30 am
by A-R
Very misleading lead story on Associated Press wire this morning. Also unsettling in a "Minority Report" or "1984" kinda way.

I'm all for the FBI and all LE agencies being proactive in these areas, but the way this is presented seems more like someone puffing up their work to cover their backside. It's like they're claiming every mental health referral they worked was another mass shooting prevented. :roll:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/fbi-disr ... erventions" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
WASHINGTON (AP) — The FBI has helped to disrupt or prevent nearly 150 shootings and violent attacks this year, in part by steering potential gunmen toward mental health professionals.
How do they know they prevented 150 shootings? Very misleading lead paragraph.
The FBI's Behavioral Analysis Unit, for years, has been working with state and local authorities to profile potential offenders with the goal of preventing violent crimes like mass shootings. The "prevented" shootings and violent attacks from January through November of this year represent 148 cases that a division of that unit, the Behavioral Threat Assessment Center, has conferred on during 2013. And that number is up 33 percent from 2012, Andre Simmons, unit chief of the center, said in an interview with The Associated Press.

In the past year, this unit has received about three new cases a week referred by federal, state, local and campus law enforcement, schools, businesses and houses of worship, Simmons said.

The Behavioral Threat Assessment Center gets involved when someone notifies law enforcement, for example, about some troubling behavior, and law enforcement reaches out to the center to help assess the situation.
Basically they had 148 cases referred to this unit.
The Behavioral Threat Assessment Center operates with the knowledge that mass shootings like Newtown are uncommon, and that's important, said Ronald Schouten, a psychiatrist at Massachusetts General Hospital and expert on threat assessments.

"These occur very rarely, and there's no profile," Schouten said of those who carry out the shootings.

The center was launched in the fall of 2010. The unit's existence is not yet common knowledge around the country. But awareness is growing, as the FBI has recently been sponsoring two-day conferences about the threat of active shooters, Simmons said.

Having a mental illness does not mean that a person is predisposed to violent behavior, Simmons said. So a person's history and surroundings are an important part of assessing the threat.
And here they flat out admit they have no profile that could predict someone will become a mass shooter.

Re: FBI "prevents" 150 mass shootings in 2013

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 1:40 pm
by VMI77
I don't take any crime prevention claims by any Federal agency at face value, particularly the FBI. My first thought reading the claim was they "prevented" mass shootings the same way they "prevent" terrorists attacks. They went out and found some not too bright crazy people, laid out a plot for them to follow, then gave them a gun and arrested them. But it sounds like they didn't even try that hard....just picked out a few people and claimed that they would have gone on a shooting binge.

Re: FBI "prevents" 150 mass shootings in 2013

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:53 pm
by Superman
Using that logic, I can't imagine their DMV statistics...every car stopped at a red light being a "crash averted" and all.

Re: FBI "prevents" 150 mass shootings in 2013

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 8:28 pm
by Ameer
A-R wrote:How do they know they prevented 150 shootings? Very misleading lead paragraph.
Maybe Holder cut back on running guns to known criminals.

Re: FBI "prevents" 150 mass shootings in 2013

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:10 pm
by MechAg94
The Behavioral Threat Assessment Center gets involved when someone notifies law enforcement, for example, about some troubling behavior, and law enforcement reaches out to the center to help assess the situation.
I wonder what behavior they are talking about? Is it stuff like a kid pretending their hand is a gun? Or actual threats of violence?

So if the local authorities actually thought a local case was important enough to refer to the FBI, didn't the local authorities or the person who reported it prevent these possible shootings and not the FBI?

Re: FBI "prevents" 150 mass shootings in 2013

Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 10:16 pm
by Jumping Frog
If I lay my skepticism aside for a moment, and this FBI unit actually -- in reality -- was able to intervene and arrange legitimate mental health care, and actually prevented violence, then that sure sounds attractive.

However, I find it difficult (if not impossible) to lay my skepticism aside ....

Re: FBI "prevents" 150 mass shootings in 2013

Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:36 pm
by jimlongley
Using their logic, I have prevented numerous shootings myself. :evil2: