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by FrogFan
Fri Jun 08, 2012 8:10 am
Forum: The Crime Blotter
Topic: CO -Police Stop, Handcuff Every Adult at Intersection
Replies: 91
Views: 9195

Re: CO -Police Stop, Handcuff Every Adult at Intersection

I think you need to review your statistics notes... :mrgreen:

But welcome to the forum, anyway!
Sent you a PM with my thinking. Interested in your thoughts. Ed
by FrogFan
Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:34 am
Forum: The Crime Blotter
Topic: CO -Police Stop, Handcuff Every Adult at Intersection
Replies: 91
Views: 9195

Re: CO -Police Stop, Handcuff Every Adult at Intersection

Its also curious that "... it wasn’t until the final car was searched that police apprehended the suspect." That's statistically unlikely. Out of 20 cars, there is only a 5% chance that the one they're looking for would be in the very last one. 95% chance that it would have been one of the other ones searched first. (Assuming an even distribution of probability for each vehicle.)
Sorry to bust in here with my first post without an intro, but I can't help myself... If I remember my statistics correctly, the probability of this happening is far less than .05. Here's how I think about it: If there are 20 cars at an intersection and one of them contains a BG, then the probability that a randomly selected car contains the BG is .05. If the BG is not found until the 20th car, then the LEOs would have had to fail to locate the BG after 19 cars had been randomly selected. The probability of this happening is, I think, (.05)**20! That's almost zero!

The point, of course, is that if the LEOs randomly selected cars to search, they most likely would have found the BG more quickly than they did; i.e., why did it take 20 cars?

Just got my plastic yesterday! Now waiting for my holster so I can do the Wal Mart walk!

Ed

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