New poll on concealed carry

frankie_the_yankee · Post by **frankie_the_yankee** » Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:09 am

I started a poll on thehighroad asking people if they carry concealed in urban areas and, if so, have they experienced gun snatches or snatch attempts.

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=307470

Feel free to hop over there and vote.

Edit: I meant to post this in the General CHL Discussion section.

nitrogen · Post by **nitrogen** » Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:48 am

I answered, and retold my "snatch attempt" story from here:
http://www.texasshooting.com/TexasCHL_F ... php?t=6202

frankie_the_yankee · Post by **frankie_the_yankee** » Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:58 am

Good story!

kw5kw · Post by **kw5kw** » Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:05 pm

How many people who have a license to carry visit these sites?

In Texas we have nearly 300,000 CHL'ers but only a small fraction visit forums.

These kinds of polls mean nothing unless you can get an answer from each and every person who carries, both openly and concealed.

Then and only then will the numbers mean anything.

Russ

boomerang · Post by **boomerang** » Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:21 pm

kw5kw wrote:These kinds of polls mean nothing unless you can get an answer from each and every person who carries, both openly and concealed.

You mean like market research, exit polls on election day, the Nielsen ratings, everything Gallup does, etc?

Lucky45 · Post by **Lucky45** » Sat Oct 06, 2007 10:19 pm

boomerang wrote:
kw5kw wrote:These kinds of polls mean nothing unless you can get an answer from each and every person who carries, both openly and concealed.
You mean like market research, exit polls on election day, the Nielsen ratings, everything Gallup does, etc?

Good reply, boomerang.

kw5kw, you have to understand that a poll is just a snapshot of the feeling of the surveyed group at that present time. Next week it can change for several reasons. Just look at the Iraq war polls, and the recent incident with a constable being killed by a driver on cellphone.

Now every poll will be skewed when refering to laws on driving while on cellphone. If this incident never happened, your results would be very different. It has nothing to do with how many drivers are polled.

frankie_the_yankee · Post by **frankie_the_yankee** » Sat Oct 06, 2007 11:22 pm

In addition to Lucky's valid observations, another reason for a poll like this to be inaccurate is that the respondants are "self selected" and the responses are "self reported". So the sample is no where near the random sample that you need for a valid result. People of a certain viewpoint or experience may respond more often than people with different viewpoints.

Also, there is nothing to stop people from making false reports to push their agenda.

The incredible number of people who claim that they have experienced snatches or snatch attempts of their concealed guns is ample evidence of that.

kw5kw · Post by **kw5kw** » Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:03 am

a pole on an open carry site will be skewed to open carry.
a similar pole on a cc site will be skewed to concealed carry.
a like pole on an anti site will most definitely be skewed against anyone carrying a gun.

The pole will be skewed unless one is very careful to include everyone involved.

Lucky45 · Post by **Lucky45** » Sun Oct 07, 2007 7:24 am

kw5kw wrote:a pole on an open carry site will be skewed to open carry.
a similar pole on a cc site will be skewed to concealed carry.
a like pole on an anti site will most definitely be skewed against anyone carrying a gun.

The pole will be skewed unless one is very careful to include everyone involved.

Every point is valid EXCEPT the last one. A poll does not have include everyone to be a valid poll. In layman terms, look at it like when you are making Kool-Aid. Do you drink the whole pitcher of kool-aid to figure out if it sweet or not throughout the whole mix? Or do you skim a pot-spoon off the top and taste, then figure the bottom of the pitcher must be mixed the sameway.

The same goes for polls / surveys, it is a sample that represents the whole group. Mathematicians and statisticians get paid $100K+ to look at this info and data-mine the results. Then come back with "several" observations like only single people over 47yo who are left handed and walk with a limp and wear glasses are..............(you finish the sentence.)
The 2 perfect examples are the Census database and your grocery store database. Ever wonder why these stores ask for your zip code?

frankie_the_yankee · Post by **frankie_the_yankee** » Sun Oct 07, 2007 8:50 am

Lucky45 wrote: Every point is valid EXCEPT the last one. A poll does not have include everyone to be a valid poll. In layman terms, look at it like when you are making Kool-Aid. Do you drink the whole pitcher of kool-aid to figure out if it sweet or not throughout the whole mix? Or do you skim a pot-spoon off the top and taste, then figure the bottom of the pitcher must be mixed the sameway.

The same goes for polls / surveys, it is a sample that represents the whole group.

Correct. But to be valid, the sample also has to be randomly drawn from the population of interest.

In these polls, the sample is "self selected". The only people who respond are the ones who want to respond. Their experiences may not be the same as the general population of people who carry concealed. Furthermore, the responses are "self-reported". People can say whatever they wish, whether true or false, with no way of verifying the accuracy of what is reported.

So the results really don't mean much of anything.

I certainly don't believe for a second that 4/85 (the current number) of people carrying concealed have had their guns snatched or attempted to be snatched (nitrogen's report excepted of course).