For a guy who isn't a NOAA employee or your TV meteorologist, I always find Eric Berger well informed and good at explaining what's happening:
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/.
Gustav is still too far away for its projected paths to be completely relevant, but Eric draws on historical modeling to say that Gustav's positioning and track looks the most favorable since 2005's Rita and Wilma to bring a hurricane into the Gulf and headed our way. Right now, he places it at about a 1-in-3 chance of a Texas landfall if the storm holds together.
He also says to throw out the GFDL and HWRF models at this point regarding projected strength. There are way too many variables still to play out so the projections are almost certainly wrong based on what data exist today.
But...'tis that time of year. Gulf waters are their warmest in September, and that's generally when we stand the best chance of seeing a strong storm. I'll certainly be watching developments with Gustav very closely over the next several days, and hope all my Gulf Coast neighbors do, as well. He could throw a big wrench into our Labor Day weekend.
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