Statistics ??: % CHL and % LEO vs TX Population

[ErnieP]

I was reading an article this week that Cedar Park, TX is increasing its number of Law Enforcement Officers (LEO) to 1.5 officers per 1,000 residents (0.15%--that's less than 1.0%) , with the goal to move that to 1.63 officers per 1,000 residents (0.163%) as part of their 5 year plan. This target was determined by studying 11 comparable cities, including Leander, Georgetown and Round Rock.

Does anyone have any statistics on how many CHLs there are compared to the total population of Texas (percentage), and the same statistics for how many LEOs there are comparted to the total population of Texas (percentage)?

I suspect the results will be quite instructive:

1.) That there probably are only about 1.5 Texas LEOs per 1,000 Texans....a very, very small number/percentage to protect our citizens, which would clearly bring home the point that it is impossible for the police to protect us;

2.) That the number/percentage of individuals coming to the conclusion that if they want to be sure they and their family have adequate protection by securing a CHL is going up; and

3.) That the percentage of the population with a CHL is now greater than the percentage of LEOs. This statistic is for informational purposes only, and in no manner should imply that CHLs have any law enforcement responsibilities, or in any way compensate for a lack of law enforcement officers.

Okay, let's hear from the statisticians out there with the best data available, what the actual numbers/percentages are..... Eventually, it would be fun to see these results broken down by county and city.

[MrsFosforos]

Charles posted this a little while ago: http://www.texasshooting.com/TexasCHL_F ... =7&t=17975 - is that the kind of info you're looking for?

[seamusTX]

The number of CHL holders in Texas is more than 300,000, or about 1.5% of the population of Texas. That's 15 per 1,000, far more than the number of police.

However, there are some significant differences to consider.

Police officers are paid to work at least 40 hours a week and generally work more, with the main focus of their job anticipating crimes and apprehending criminals. They respond to 911 calls. Some work undercover. They get information from informants that leads them to criminal activity. CHL holders who are not LEOs do none of the above.

There are also many CHL holders who got a license after some event like Hurricane Katrina, and when the initial alarm wears off, they don't carry. Or, they find that having two pounds of metal strapped to their hip is uncomfortable and doesn't fit their lifestyle or designer clothing, so they stop carrying.

Then again, there was a time when every pickup truck had a shotgun or rifle in the rack. That was a huge, mobile militia that occasionally came to the assistance of the police. You don't see that today.

The number of people who are legally armed in public is unknowable, and IMHO quite small.

- Jim

[WildBill]

Does anyone have any statistics on how many CHLs there are compared to the total population of Texas (percentage), and the same statistics for how many LEOs there are comparted to the total population of Texas (percentage)?
Okay, let's hear from the statisticians out there with the best data available, what the actual numbers/percentages are..... Eventually, it would be fun to see these results broken down by county and city.

I am not a statistician, nor do I have any data, nor do I want to collect any data. I suspect that the average number of LEOs in Texas is going to widely vary by populaton density. In the rural areas I would expect the LEO ratio to much lower that a large city like Houston. Within the city of Houston, they have HPD, Metro, DPS, Constables, University Police, and various other city, state and federal agencies. That's going to be hard to get accurate numbers of total LEOs.

I have never seen any statistics to show that increasing the number of LEOs decreases crime. I don't have any data, but I would wager that many cities with the lowest crime rates have less, rather than more LEOs/100,000.

[seamusTX]

Every peace officer in Texas must have a TCLEOSE certificate, so that number is knowable. Perhaps Steve Rothstein will know how to obtain it.

On top of that, however, you have federal agents and retired police officers who can legally carry and do not have Texas credentials.

- Jim

[WildBill]

The number of CHL holders in Texas is more than 300,000, or about 1.5% of the population of Texas. That's 15 per 1,000, far more than the number of police. The number of people who are legally armed in public is unknowable, and IMHO quite small. - Jim

I am curious about the number of CHLs who carry regularly. I suspect that the overall rate is much smaller than for the members of the Forum.

[ErnieP]

Great commentary and discussion. Has anyone on the Board done a poll of our participants as to the percentage of the time they carry?

[seamusTX]

I am curious about the number of CHLs who carry regularly. I suspect that the overall rate is much smaller than for the members of the Forum.

I agree. I also suspect that people would not admit to not carrying, much as they will not admit to eating junk food and failing to exercise.

(In personal ads, everyone says they enjoy long walks on the beach. Well, I live near a beach, and I don't see many people taking long walks on it. )

One known fact that has been discussed in this forum is the number of CHL renewal students who have not shot since their prior qualification. Sometimes they show up with non-functional weapons.

P.S.: According to this document, in 2007 there were approximately 104,000 active TCLEOSE licenses. That's no just police officers but everything from probation officers to prison guards to game wardens.

- Jim

[WildBill]

I also suspect that people would not admit to not carrying, much as they will not admit to eating junk food and failing to exercise.
(In personal ads, everyone says they enjoy long walks on the beach. Well, I live near a beach, and I don't see many people taking long walks on it. ) - Jim

Just because I enjoy drinking Champagne, while hot-tubbing with beautiful young women, doesn't mean that I do it every day. I am sure you are familiar with the Pina Colada Song

I believe there is such a survey on this Forum, but I can't locate it right now. It would be pretty hard to perform a survey of non-forum member CHLs, especially since the list isn't available to the public anymore. I doubt that the DPS is going to fund such a survey.

[seamusTX]

I don't know how you could get the data.

Likewise, we have no way to know how many people car carry or carry without a license. I know one guy who does it when he's doing something like carrying a lot of cash, and there is case law supporting that kind of use.

Phone surveys have been conducted to try to determine how many people own firearms in states that do not have registration. They get wildly different results over time, suggesting that some people lie (falsely stating that they do not own firearms) when the political climate is largely anti-RKBA.

- Jim

[WildBill]

I don't know how you could get the data.

Phone surveys have been conducted to try to determine how many people own firearms in states that do not have registration. They get wildly different results over time, suggesting that some people lie (falsely stating that they do not own firearms) when the political climate is largely anti-RKBA. - Jim

I would not participate in such a survey. I would hang up on some one who wanted to question me about my ownership of firearms or whether I carry them or had a CHL.

[Charles L. Cotton]

Based upon comments made in my CHL classes and other classes (very unscientific!), I suspect 1) significantly less than 100% of CHLs carry most or all of the time; and 2) many CHLs understate the amount of time they do carry, if they talk about it at all.

Chas.

[WildBill]

Based upon comments made in my CHL classes and other classes (very unscientific!), I suspect 1) significantly less than 100% of CHLs carry most or all of the time; and 2) many CHLs understate the amount of time they do carry, if they talk about it at all. Chas.

Charles - I am going to challenge you on Point 2). I believe they overstate the amount of time they carry. At least the men do, so they won't sound wimpy in class.

[ScubaSigGuy]

I am curious what the percentage of those LEO's handly administrative duties only.

[stroo]

Don't forget that a lot of Texans have traditionally carried a handgun in their car, CHL or no CHL.

Having said that and while concealed carry makes a difference in crime levels, it appears to me from the national statistics that come out regularly that the one of biggest differences between states with higher crime levels and those with lower crime levels are the number of LEOs per capita (more LEOs = lower crime).