American Civil War 2010?

[longhorn_92]

I heard this on the radio this morning and then found this article....

Did anyone else hear of this on the radio or TV???... To me it is nothing more than Socialistic Propaganda.




By ANDREW OSBORN
MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

Igor Panarin
In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.

[nitrogen]

Yeah, this is a few months old.

Just some Russian paper trying to sell issues IMHO.

[Jeff B.]

Back in the 80's there was a book "The Nine Nations of North America", by Joel Garreau.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Natio ... th_America

He hypothesizes a similar geographic/social/ethnic breakup of the United States. You can take either/both with a grain of salt. I do feel, however, that there is a growing distance between what you might call the traditionalists and progressives in the country, and the difference is reflected in the electoral maps, especially if you look by county.

I don't think it's a huge stretch to anticipate additional stress on the relationships between various regions, states and the Federal Government based on our current economic situation and the actions being taken and future actions that will be taken. It boils down to some areas thinking that more government is better and others thinking less is better.

That said, an increasingly polarized society with state governments and Congressional Delegations that stand in active opposition to the policies and initiatives of the Federal Government are a far cry from a secession.

Jeff B.

[HighVelocity]

"United We Stand" are not just words.

[Lodge2004]

It boils down to some areas thinking that more government is better and others thinking less is better.

That's a debate we have been having since before this country was founded.

That said, an increasingly polarized society with state governments and Congressional Delegations that stand in active opposition to the policies and initiatives of the Federal Government are a far cry from a secession.

We have had several wars on this continent to settle some of these same issues. Human nature being what it is, issues are never truly settled. The polarization seems bad to us right now, but it doesn't compare to some periods in our past.

[Fangs]

Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence.

...he lured me in with the Communist Kalifornia thing, but this just ruined it. I think Texas would stand alone and start exporting illigal immigrants way before joining Mexico.

[flintknapper]

Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence.

...he lured me in with the Communist Kalifornia thing, but this just ruined it. I think Texas would stand alone and start exporting illigal immigrants way before joining Mexico.

Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence.

I don't think so........!

Someone would do well to remember this little catch phrase:

"Texas, the only State to have kicked another Country's butt"!

[AEA]

Whoever said it.........

WELL SAID!

[Morgan]

Texas would go to war with Mexico before "falling under Mexican control." I can't imagine places as different as TX and Mex on the nature of government.

[flintknapper]

Texas would go to war with Mexico before "falling under Mexican control." I can't imagine places as different as TX and Mex on the nature of government.

Yes Sir!

The net result...would be that TEXAS would get bigger...and we'd have more beaches.

[casingpoint]

LOL. The Mexican government is at it's zenith now, trying to arrest a drug trade that it controls.

The Chinese government faces now faces the dire prospect of being overrun by rioting peasants and displaced industrial workers.

The Russians are a one-shot wonder now incapable of any sustained military effort. Ask any Czar what happens when you fall out of favor.

Foreign investors, including some governments, recently bought U.S. Treasury bonds bearing zero interest simply to have their money in a secure place.

And remember that bit from WWII about a gun behind every blade of grass? Well, those guns are still out there.